Key Points
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The S&P 500 held just above Friday’s record close while the Dow and Nasdaq Composite slipped slightly.
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Brent crude has swung from $113 in the spring to near $80 last week and back to $86 today, all on varying war headlines.
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Second-quarter earnings are nearly wrapped, with analysts expecting profit growth near 50%, the strongest reading since 2021.
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After two weeks of large moves in both directions, the market showed up Monday and did almost nothing. That’s a change of pace.
The stock index chart below looks squiggly, but all the moves are small. The S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) is up 0.05% as of noon ET, holding just above the record it set on Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI) is off by 0.13% and the Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) index is down 0.19%. All three rose out of the gate, topped out before 11 a.m. ET, and slid right back to breakeven — all without moving more than 0.4% away from 0% in any direction.
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A stalled negotiation is capping today’s market
Blame the oil market first. The United States Oil Fund (NYSEMKT: USO) shot up 5.3% as Brent crude oil climbed past $86 per barrel, wiping out most of last week’s slide. The reason is sadly familiar. Progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz reportedly stalled over the weekend after Iran raised new demands and Houthi forces hit a Red Sea port. Crude has now gone from $113 in the spring to near $80 last week to $86 today. The geopolitical risk premium is back, and it arrives two days before Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report.
The Magnificent 7 is pulling in two directions. Cloud and software giants took the lead. Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) rose 2.1%, good for about 62 Dow points and the biggest positive contribution to the S&P 500. Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) added 2% and Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) tacked on 1.3%.
Image source: Getty Images.
The other half had a rougher time. Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) fell 2% and gave up roughly $104 billion in market value. Reports suggest that Nvidia might cut back on high-bandwidth memory chips in a coming AI accelerator design to protect margins. Those memory chips are pricey, you know. Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) matched Nvidia’s 2% decline, worth about $88 billion, based on component cost concerns. Between them, those two names subtracted roughly 0.4 percentage points from the Nasdaq Composite.
Chips are mostly lower, with SK Hynix (NASDAQ: SKHY) off 0.9% and the iShares Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ: SOXX) falling 1%. The odd one out is Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU), flat at 0.1% despite the Nvidia memory headline pointing straight at its business. Wall Street isn’t buying that particular bear thesis today.
Home Depot (NYSE: HD) fell 2% on gloomy consumer confidence trends and unclear macro signals. The home improvement retailer cost the Dow 42 points.
Zooming out on a quiet Monday
Monday looks like consolidation rather than a turn. The S&P 500 is sitting on a record set after two consecutive weekly gains, and the second-quarter earnings season has nearly wrapped with analysts expecting profit growth near 50%, the strongest since 2021.
Oil continues to cap the market’s upside potential. Every time crude falls, inflation fears ease and stocks rally. Then a negotiation stalls, and the whole thing reverses. That loop has run three times in three weeks.
Wednesday’s inflation report is the next real test, with forecasters looking for 3.4% headline CPI versus 3.5% in June. Until then, a day where the indexes move a rounding error is worth exactly as much attention as it sounds like. Which is to say: not much.
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Anders Bylund has positions in Amazon, Micron Technology, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon, Apple, Home Depot, Meta Platforms, Micron Technology, Microsoft, Nvidia, and iShares Trust-iShares Semiconductor ETF. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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