U.S. legacy automaker Ford F is finally seeing some relief on one of its biggest production headaches. The automaker is ramping up output of its highly profitable F-Series pickup trucks (including F-150 and Super Duty trucks) after supplier disruptions severely constrained production over the past year. Two fires at supplier Novelis’ New York plant choked off the aluminum Ford needs for F-Series bodies, and it took months to get that supply back online.
Per CNBC, Ford produced more than 39,000 Super Duty trucks last month, marking the best monthly output in about 20 years. Production of the F-150 also reached its highest level in two years. The increase should help Ford replenish dealer inventories and capture some of the pent-up demand.
However, the production recovery comes at a time when overall U.S. sales remain under pressure and Ford’s electric-vehicle business is struggling. This makes the outlook for Ford stock more balanced than the F-Series rebound alone might suggest.
Ford August Vehicle Sales Decline
Ford’s U.S. sales fell 10.3% year over year in August, marking the automaker’s eighth consecutive monthly decline. Some of that is a comparison issue. Ford discontinued the Escape and the Lincoln Corsair earlier this year, which mechanically drags down the total. But it’s not the whole story.
The real red flag is on the electric side. EV sales collapsed 79.4% year over year last month, and even hybrid— which Ford has leaned on as a bridge to electrification— fell nearly 20%. That’s a bigger problem than it might look on the surface.
Ford has poured serious capital into building out EV capacity, and if buyers aren’t showing up, the company is left holding expensive infrastructure that may be harder to justify if demand remains weak. The Ford Model e segment lost $919 million in the second quarter of 2026. Management expects a full-year 2026 loss of about $4 billion, including roughly $1 billion of incremental investment in the Universal EV platform and Ford Energy.
But the question is whether the decline in EV and hybrid sales means that Ford is now more dependent than ever on gas-powered trucks and SUVs to carry the business, even as it continues funding an EV strategy that isn’t gaining traction.
Where Ford’s Long-Term Story Gets Interesting
Ford isn’t just betting on legacy trucks to fix this. Ford Pro— the commercial vehicle division that bundles in software subscriptions and service revenues— is becoming a genuine growth engine. It’s the kind of recurring, higher-margin business that tends to earn a better valuation over time. Management has been confident enough in Ford Pro and Ford Blue to raise guidance for both businesses.
There’s also a second EV attempt in the pipeline— the Fathom, a midsize electric pickup aimed at coming in under $30,000, with deliveries targeted for 2027. If Ford can actually build and sell it at a reasonable margin, it could open up the affordable end of the EV market that Ford has struggled to crack.
But that’s a big “if.” Pre-orders haven’t even opened yet, and until Ford proves it can manufacture the thing profitably, this is a story for 2027.
Meanwhile, the cost side isn’t getting any easier. Ford expects commodity costs alone to top $2 billion this year, on top of the roughly $1.5 billion hit from the Novelis disruption. Add in tariff exposure, heavy capital spending, and a business still overly reliant on trucks and commercial vehicles, and the risk list is longer than the production headline suggests.
F Stock Price, Valuation & Estimates
Year to date, Ford shares have moved up roughly 8% against the industry’s decline of 15%. It has also outperformed its close peers General Motors GM and Stellantis STLA. While General Motors shares rose 4.4%, those of Stellantis have lost 51% over the same time frame.
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Ford shares currently trade at 7.4X forward earnings, close to its five-year average but way lower than its peer group. Meanwhile, General Motors and Stellantis are trading at 5.95X and 6.46X forward earnings, respectively.
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The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ford’s 2026 and 2027 EPS implies year-over-year growth of 71% and 4.4%, respectively.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Our Take
The F-Series production rebound is real, and it should eventually show up in sales as inventory normalizes over the next couple of quarters— that’s the part worth watching closely. Ford Pro provides a promising source of recurring, higher-margin revenues. Ford’s energy-related opportunities and solid liquidity provide additional financial flexibility. These strengths could help the company navigate a difficult automotive environment while continuing to invest in future growth.
However, these positives are being offset by weak overall U.S. sales, a steep decline in EV demand, rising commodity and trade costs, continued EV losses and execution risks surrounding its next generation of vehicles.
The September and October sales data will give a clearer picture of whether restocked dealer lots actually convert into stronger volume, and whether EV demand stabilizes or keeps sliding.
Until then, Ford doesn’t look like a “Buy,” although existing shareholders should certainly stay invested for the long haul.
F stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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