The whipping post

Prediction: This Unstoppable Vanguard ETF Could Crush the S&P 500 Over the Next 10 Years

Key Points

The S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) has been on a seemingly unstoppable run lately, earning total returns of nearly 80% over the past three years, as of this writing. That said, there are still plenty of stocks outperforming the benchmark index.

Industry-leading tech companies, specifically, have experienced explosive growth as AI continues to dominate the sector. While past performance doesn’t predict future returns, there’s one ETF I believe is well-positioned to capitalize on future growth: the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (NYSEMKT: MGK).

Will AI create the world’s first trillionaire? Our team just released a report on the one little-known company, called an “Indispensable Monopoly” providing the critical technology Nvidia and Intel both need. Continue »

Hundred dollar bills against a yellow background.

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A powerful investment with a strong track record

Large-cap stocks are generally defined as those with a market cap of at least $10 billion, while mega-cap stocks typically have a market cap of at least $200 billion. The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF focuses exclusively on the largest U.S. companies with strong growth potential, holding nearly 60 mega-cap names.

This fund was launched in 2007, and since then, it’s already significantly outperformed the S&P 500. If you’d invested $10,000 in either the Mega Cap Growth ETF or an S&P 500 ETF, you’d have around $106,000 or $73,000, respectively, by today.

^SPX Chart

^SPX data by YCharts

The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF has outpaced the S&P 500 by a wider and wider margin over time, thanks at least in part to tech giants earning staggering returns. Tech stocks make up the majority of the fund, and its top three holdings — Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft — combined account for over one-third of the overall portfolio.

With more high-profile companies like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic all hitting the market soon, the mega-cap space could expand even further. If large companies continue to outperform as they have over the last several years, this ETF will be well-positioned for significant growth.

One major risk factor to consider

Perhaps the biggest risk with this ETF is its relative lack of diversification. Its narrow focus on mega-cap growth stocks has resulted in above-average returns in recent years, but if this segment of the market falters, this ETF could be hit hard.

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Throughout the 2022 bear market, for example, the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF fell by around 35%, compared to only 24% for the S&P 500.

^SPX Chart

^SPX data by YCharts

Many of the top holdings also focus on AI development, which could be both lucrative and volatile. If you choose to buy, holding for at least a few years can help reduce the impact of that volatility. It’s also wise to ensure the rest of your portfolio is well-diversified with stocks outside the tech sector to further mitigate risk.

Again, past performance doesn’t guarantee future returns. But for investors looking to capitalize on the largest growth stocks in the U.S., the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF could continue beating the market for years to come.

Should you buy stock in Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF right now?

Before you buy stock in Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF, consider this:

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.

Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004… if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $439,038!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005… if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,277,804!*

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See the 10 stocks »

*Stock Advisor returns as of June 11, 2026.

Katie Brockman has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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